Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained!
EDITORIALS IN 2023
2024 Appears to Be a Golden Year with a Silver Lining
December 29th, 2023
Gold and silver prices have been on a roller coaster over the past 3.5 years as prices have responded to the changing political and economic environment. With the U.S. dollar posting its worst performance since 2020 against a basket of major currencies, Gold Futures ended 2023 with a nearly 14% gain, while silver ended the year basically flat. Despite challenges such as surging bond yields and...
The Fed Dot Plots Gold Towards its Last Line of Resistance at $2100
December 15th, 2023
After an already extreme overbought gold price exploded to an all-time intraday record high of $2152 to begin the month of December, prices pulled back towards key support at $2000 into Fed Week as trader’s banked short-term windfall profits. Once the gold price had gone too far, too fast, the safe-haven metal was due for a consolidation of outsized gains...
Gold Consolidating Recent Outsized Gains into Fed Week
December 8th, 2023
Last week was pivotal for the precious metal’s complex, with the gold price closing above key resistance at $2000 on a monthly basis after numerous failures to do so over the past 3.5 years. Inside of a run that saw the safe-haven metal move to an all-time intraday high of $2152 on Sunday evening, Gold Futures have quickly moved down towards former 12-year resistance at $2000, now key support...
Three White Soldiers Leading Charge to an Imminent Gold Breakout
December 1st, 2023
After a week of light holiday trading volume in the gold space, further weakness in the U.S. Dollar coming into the last week of November took the USDX below critical support at 103. The move below this important line of support in the world’s reserve currency catapulted the gold price to 6-month highs on Tuesday and Gold Futures are now within striking distance of all-time highs...
Gold Corrections Now Shorter on Concerns of a U.S. Debt Spiral
November 17th, 2023
After plenty of hawkish Fed-speak kept pressure on the gold price last week, along with the Middle East war premium being eroded, Gold Futures have quickly moved back up to test the bullion banks’ Maginot Line of critical resistance at $2000 per ounce. The safe-haven metal has now reached the important $2000 level in eight of the past nine months, but has failed to follow-through with a breakout above...
Gold Bracing for a Major Shift in Central Bank Policy
November 3rd, 2023
With Middle East worries, chaos in U.S. government, and rising bond yields creating uncertainty in the marketplace, the gold price rose nearly $200 in October to close just below the key $2000 level on Tuesday. After almost two years of aggressive monetary tightening, the world's largest central banks have also collectively paused interest rate-hikes as the gold price consolidates it...
Gold Consolidating Recent Gains at $2000 into Fed Week
October 27th, 2023
Demand from investors seeking a haven against weakness in stocks and bonds, as well as geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, has been pushing both gold and the U.S. dollar higher. December Gold Futures are bullishly consolidating recent outsized gains near the key $2000 level heading into the weekend. With the S&P 500 losing key support at 4200 mid-week due to...
Gold Prepares for a Breakout as its Safe-Haven Status Returns
October 20th, 2023
After a waterfall decline into the first week of October, the gold price has been on an unstoppable move higher when war fears entered the marketplace last week. Despite the U.S. 10-year bond yield rising to 5%, the safe-haven metal has risen from $1825 just two weeks ago to move closer to the key $2000 level as I type this column – notching up an impressive gain of 9%, so far this month...
Waterfall Decline in Gold Induces Miner Capitulation
October 6th, 2023
The headwinds from persistent strength in the U.S. dollar and 10-year bond yields moving closer to 5% have proved too much for the gold market as prices have fallen to their lowest level since March. Gold lost key support at $1900 in September, when the month and quarter ended last Friday. With the Chinese market being closed during "Golden Week," Western bullion banks were primed to continue...
Gold Futures are Building a New Floor at $1900
September 1st, 2023
After an introduction to a U.S. regional banking crisis in March took the gold price from just above $1800 to over $2000, Gold Futures have been consolidating those outsized gains by carving out a bullish flagging pattern between $1900 and $2000 for the past five months.On Thursday, Gold Futures closed above $1900 on a monthly basis for a sixth consecutive month, creating a strong base ahead of...
Gold Futures Move Towards Key $1900 Support into Jackson Hole
August 18th, 2023
After continued U.S. economic strength announced this week, the likelihood of another Fed rate hike by November moving closer to 50% has taken Gold Futures closer to key technical support at $1900. Traders assign a 45% chance of a November rate hike, after an expected pause in September. One week ago, those odds of a November hike were less than 30%...
Gold Futures Remain in Uptrend with an Expected Fed Pause
August 11th, 2023
The gold market did not see much of a reaction after CPI inflation cooled slightly more than expected on Thursday, followed by a mildly hotter-than-expected PPI inflation report this morning. U.S. CPI annual inflation rose 3.2%, up from 3% in June, while PPI inflation for July came in at up 0.3% from June. Thursday’s July CPI report was slightly tamer than expected, which solidified notions the...
Gold Positioning for a Breakout After Bottoming in June
July 14th, 2023
With most investors having given up on the ancient metal of Kings during summer doldrums, the gold bull is positioning for an historic breakout with very few riders left on board. This is par for gold’s course, as historically, the safe-haven metal has a habit of ditching as many investors as possible before its next major up-leg begins. For over three years now Gold Futures have traded in a range between...
Hawkish Central Banks Move Gold Futures Down Towards $1900
June 23rd, 2023
Coming into this U.S. holiday shortened week, the gold price had been trading in a tight $40 range for the previous two weeks, waiting for a proper catalyst to decide its next move. The rate-hike pause by the Fed last Wednesday failed to move Gold Futures above the key $2000 level, despite a sharply sinking U.S. dollar. ust one week after the Federal Reserve opted to skip a rate hike with inflation still...
Gold Moves Through Whipsaw City Heading into Fed Week
June 9th, 2023
With Gold Futures remaining in a five-week downtrend from a peak near all-time highs reached in early May, the safe-haven metal has been chopping inside of a tight range between $1985 and $1950 since Monday. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve taking a break in its aggressive interest-rate campaign during the FOMC meeting next week is becoming further priced into the...
Debt Can Kick Moves Gold Towards the Key $2000 Level
June 2nd, 2023
After a healthy 7% gold price correction of a $465 move higher since the November low at $1620, bullion is already knocking on the $2000 door again. The sharp move higher in the safe-haven metal this week has been fueled by a debt ceiling deal, along with several Fed governors hinting of a rate hike pause during the upcoming FOMC policy meeting later this month putting pressure on the U.S. dollar...
More Gold Consolidation Required in Time and Price
May 12th, 2023
After the doubling of the gold price from a low of $1045 in late 2015, to a peak at $2089 by mid-2020, the safe-haven metal had reached a technically extreme overbought situation. While bullish sentiment in bullion also peaked at that time, a sideways consolidation process inside of a $450 price range has been taking place in Gold Futures for nearly three years...
Robust U.S. Jobs Report Delays Gold Breakout
May 5th, 2023
Heading into the highly anticipated FOMC meeting results on Wednesday, the gold price had been trading in a tight $40 range around the key $2000 level for the past few weeks. But regional banking concerns became the focal point for investors to begin an expectedly volatile week, which also included European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy results on Thursday, followed by...
Gold Trading in a Tight Range Heading into Fed Week
April 28th, 2023
With Gold Futures consolidating recent gains, renewed banking fears are keeping the safe-haven metal in a tight range around the key $2000 level as month-end book squaring takes place into Fed week. We learned this week that the recent collapse of several prominent banks in the U.S. and Europe has seen depositors withdraw a total of $508 billion dollars from banks around the world...
Gold Consolidating Recent Gains Around the Key $2000 Level
April 21st, 2023
We are just over a quarter into 2023 and it has already been a very good year for the precious metals complex. But this is likely just the beginning of the sector's best year since the Global Financial Crisis put in a major gold bottom in 2008 when the Fed was forced to recapitalize the U.S. banking system. After an explosive move in Gold Futures came within $25 of all-time highs last week, an...
Gold Futures Nearing a Technical Breakout Above $2100
April 14th, 2023
After posting an all-time high on both a monthly and quarterly basis at the end of March, Gold Futures are nearing blue sky territory above the all-time high of $2089 made in August 2020. The most actively traded Gold Futures contract closed at $2055 on Thursday, looking to make a weekly all-time high close later today. Bullion is up about 12% year to date, whereas the benchmark S&P 500 index has,,,
Gold Futures Test Key $2000 Resistance into the End of Q1
March 31st, 2023
As the final day of a volatile first quarter ends later this afternoon, Gold Futures are looking to close above 12-year resistance at $2000 per ounce on a monthly/quarterly basis for the first time in history. Although bullion priced in U.S. dollars has visited the $2000-$2100 region on two previous occasions over the past 32-months of grinding sideways action, gold bulls were denied...
Gold Nears Breakout after the Fed Signals an End to Rate Hikes
March 24th, 2023
After witnessing the 2nd and 3rd largest bank failures in U.S. history happening back to back, depositors withdrew a total $42 billion from U.S. banks last Friday. In contrast, the precious metals market recorded a net inflow totaling $5.9 billion, which was the second largest weekly inflow into the safe-haven sector since the 2008 global financial crisis...
Banking Crisis Keeping Gold Above $1900 into Fed Week
March 17th, 2023
After hearing rumors of a "soft landing" from the Federal Reserve for the past year, an old-fashioned bank run has raised the odds considerably of the outcome from its aggressive rate-hike program ushering in a much harder one. Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned us that the road ahead will be "bumpy" during his testimony before Congress last Tuesday, a bank contagion beginning...
The Gold Sector Attempts to Reverse the PDAC Curse
March 10th, 2023
Earlier this week, I attended the annual Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference in Toronto. It is the premier destination for mining companies to mingle with suppliers, customers, potential investors, consultants, and analysts.Not only is this a must-attend event for professional mining investors such as myself, PDAC can also be a very good gauge of...
Gold Holds Key $1800 Support as Recession Fears Mount
March 3rd, 2023
Gold Futures opened 2023 at $1825, then reached a year-to-date high of $1975 on February 2 after the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year. But continued signs of inflation, a strong U.S. dollar, and rising bond yields on the back of a surprising release of a very strong U.S. jobs report for January all helped to push the gold price towards key support at $1800 by the end of the following month...
Miner Merger Mondays Return Heading into Conference Season
February 17th, 2023
As expected in this space last week, the announcement of gold mining behemoth Newmont Gold’s (NEM) attempt to acquire Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCMGY), the 6th largest bullion miner, has spurned more miner M&A for a second consecutive Monday. As the precious metals equity sector continues to consolidate an over 50% upside move from September into the first week of this year...
More Mega-Miner M&A During a Healthy Gold Correction
February 10th, 2023
With Gold Futures in the process of consolidating a 3-month $355 move higher that began with a $50 downside reversal on February 2nd, the world's largest gold miner announced its intention to become even bigger on Sunday evening. U.S. based Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) made an almost $17 billion offer to acquire Australia's Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCMGY), aiming to distance itself further...
Central Bank Rate Hikes Whipsaw Gold Traders
February 3rd, 2023
The gold price began the week with a technically bullish monthly close near $1950 on Tuesday. The safe-haven metal rose $120 in January on the back of strong central bank buying data from the World Gold Council (WGC). Global central banks purchased 1,136 tons of gold in 2022, driving demand for bullion to the highest mark since 2011...
Gold Consolidating Gains Above $1900 into Fed Week
January 27th, 2023
The gold price is up over $100 in the first month of 2023, its best start to the year since 2012. After a false breakout to the downside during the final quarter of 2022, gold has zoomed $332 an ounce from its November low at $1618. This now 20% rally over the past three months has technically placed the safe-haven metal in a bull market, suggesting further gains ahead...
Junior Gold Stocks are Poised to Outperform in 2023
January 20th, 2023
With the rally in gold prices over the past two months having defied analyst expectations for continued weakness, precious metals remain under-owned and out of favor despite their strong relative and absolute performance into 2023.Since a monthly triple-bottom took place in November, I related in this space last week that the gold price continuing its climb has been mostly due to...
Global Swapping of Dollars for Gold has $2000 per oz in View
January 13th, 2023
On Thursday, Gold Futures breached $1900 per ounce for the first time in eight months after growth in U.S. consumer prices and inflation slowed as forecast in December, aiding the Federal Reserve’s goal of continuing with smaller rate hikes in 2023.The benchmark COMEX Gold Futures contract has risen over 4% since the start of the year, extending its now 18% rise from...
Gold Continues to Climb a Wall of Worry into 2023
January 6th, 2023
After two years of consolidating huge gains made during the early stages of the pandemic in 2020, the gold price comes into the new year climbing another wall of worry. Gold's time-tested role as a safe-haven returned in late Q4 2022 and has been carried over to January with investors seeking shelter from what has been forecast to be another challenging year...